Thursday, December 6, 2018

Trump fears political price from oil spike, market turmoil

President Donald Trump is fretting about two rising global challenges that threaten a political gut punch as he gears up for his 2020 election bid -- a possible oil price hike and market shocks triggered by his trade wars.

Both crises will test Trump's capacity to work his will on the world stage as well as the strategic viability of his "America First" foreign policy. A tariff battle with China is highlighting a growing great power rivalry. And Russia's role as a top energy producer with a vested interest in setting global oil prices could open new fronts in a widening confrontation between Washington and Moscow.
The Dow is on track to slide 400 points at Thursday's open after Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada -- renewing doubts about the US-China truce.

The President's Twitter account is usually a reliable guide to his frustrations and grievances, and apart from a tribute to George H.W. Bush on the day of his funeral, Trump's feed pulsated with concern Wednesday about market moving events.
He effectively dared ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna not to cut production, a move that could reverse a period of lower oil prices and compromise the effectiveness of new US sanctions imposed as part of a new hardline policy on Iran.
"Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!" Trump wrote.
But most analysts expect OPEC to cut production by up to 1.5 million barrels a day to reverse a glut partly triggered by a previous US request to pump more oil as a cushion against the impact of the new sanctions on Iran.
Such a move could not only spark further volatility of global markets, it could push up the cost of gas in the United States, ending a period of lower pump prices welcomed especially by lower income workers in rural areas key to Trump's political base.
An OPEC production cut could also cast doubt on the effectiveness of one of Trump's most controversial foreign policy moves -- holding Saudi Arabia close despite the suspected role of the kingdom's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, in the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey.
Trump is under extreme pressure in Congress for standing by MBS and support is building among lawmakers for a ban on arms sales and new sanctions against the kingdom. Trump, however, partly justified his refusal to cut the Saudis loose by noting their importance in global oil markets.
"Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $54, was just $82. Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!" Trump tweeted on November 21.

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