A subset of the arcane "game theory" of nuclear deterrence, missile defence rests heavily on perception and persuasion. Nobody pretends it is an impenetrable shield guaranteed to keep citizens safe. But in the mind of Kim there is all the world's difference between knowing he can obliterate Tokyo or Seoul and being uncertain how threatening his first strike would actually be.
"Our Aegis ships are operating 24/7 in the Sea of Japan and I think they're having a hard time," said Ken Jimbo, a defence expert with Keio University.
South Korea is deploying the US-made THAAD or terminal high altitude area defence system. Likewise Japan is urgently upgrading its missile defence.
"Because of the imminent threat from North Korea, we are going to much increase our BMD [ballistic missile defence] capability," Hiroki Ichikawa, a deputy director of strategic planning at the Ministry of Defence in Tokyo, told Fairfax Media in a rare briefing.
Japan now has a two-layered shield consisting of the Aegis destroyers and a land-based Patriot system made up of five mobile interceptor launchers. But Satoshi Morimoto, a former defence minister who now serves as a special adviser to the present minister, said Japan was investigating whether lasers mounted on drones could add a significant extra layer.
A ballistic missile has three stages of flight: the boost stage in which the missile defeats gravity by burning its rocket engines, the mid-course stage in which its momentum carries it outside the atmosphere, and the terminal stage in which gravity draws it towards its target.
Aegis intercepts during the mid-course stage and Patriot (and THAAD) during the terminal stage. But North Korea has practised lofting its missiles vertically, meaning they are higher and harder to hit at their apex and also descend much faster, making them harder to intercept in the terminal stage.
A laser system would target a missile during the boost phase, damaging it so when it re-entered the atmosphere after peaking the air resistance would break it apart.
Meanwhile, Pyongyang's program is improving at a pace nobody expected, including launching four test missiles simultaneously in March in a bid to show they can overwhelm Japan's defences through swarm-like numbers.
One former high-ranking defence official said the current system "doesn't cover enough and also it's not enough for a saturated attack by the North Koreans".
The Japanese government has already committed to doubling to eight the number of Aegis ships and acquiring newer SM-3 and Patriot interceptors that can travel much faster and cover a wider area. Together they will be better able to handle swarms of missiles and to distinguish genuine threats from decoys, Mr Ichikawa explained.
He added: "By introduction of this [new SM-3] we can increase the capability to intercept the lofted trajectories."
Japan is also "strongly" considering a land-based version of Aegis which Mr Ichikawa said was cheaper and provided more coverage than THAAD.
Some experts, including Professor Jimbo, say Japan's missile defence needs to be complemented by a strengthened ability to strike offensively – a touchy subject in postwar Japan with its anti-aggression constitution and culture.
This comes back to the mind games of deterrence. By being able to neutralise at least some of North Korea's missile launch sites, "we want to decrease the number of incoming missiles from probably 10 to seven or six with the counterstrike capability, to increase the credibility of our missile defence", Professor Jimbo said.
If that creates some doubt in the mind of Mr Kim and his generals, North Korea's neighbours will feel that bit safer.
David Wroe has travelled to Japan courtesy of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affair
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